It’s hard to find much positive news to hang your hat on over the last week but there is good news on the property market. GDP was down 20.4% in April, the single largest monthly fall ever recorded. Large scale redundancies have been announced. 8.9 million people are currently on furlough hoping they have a job to return to. No wonder then that protests spurred counter protests which turned violent. And Brexit is back on the menu if all that wasn’t enough. A tough week in anyone’s book.
Mortgage market calm
However, the mortgage/property market seems to be a place of relative calm at present. In fact Rightmove announced last week that 40,000 new house sales had been agreed since the market re-opened on the 13th May. That is only 3% down on last years figures (interestingly, new property coming to market is 1.9% up on prices of last year which shows you how bullish sellers are feeling). So that’s some good news on property market
Lower deposit deals in high demand
We have been extremely busy over the last month ourselves. The only area we are seeing that is relatively problematic is that of lower deposit deals. If you have a 10%, or less, deposit, there are still deals out there but they are fleeting. A perfect example of this is a deal that Coventry released on Friday, which was withdrawn at 8pm today due to demand!
HSBC are also running limited funds on their comparable deals. You can book funds each day at 8:00am, but often by 8:05am they are all gone.
I don’t say this to beat up these lenders, quite to the contrary, we extend a huge thank you for supporting this market, as has Bank of Ireland with some great deals in this area also. It would be good to see more lenders in this space so these guys aren’t shouldering all the work and having to do things like this to control volume/risk. But if this is our biggest gripe currently, we are in a very privileged placed compared to many sectors of the economy. So good news on property market.
Property market is leading the charge
It has been really nice if I am honest, being in our own little bubble. I am often too busy to look at the news or worry too much about what is going on, which is a blessing at the best of times. For once, the property market is leading the charge back to normality, and with many shops now re-opening and showing what pent up demand there is, it feels a lot brighter than the dire GDP figures from April.
There is still a long way to go, but if infection rates keep falling, and sections of the economy keep reopening as planned, we could well be past the worst of it now. Just don’t mention the B word and we could have a good end to the year…
Money markets are stabilizing, but again, all nudged down vs last weeks figures.
So on that basis, it is not looking likely we will see more than one base rate rise in the next 5 years as that is what is currently predicted. However, I feel that is an overly pessimistic view based on people’s opinions right now, so we may well see more than that. But whichever way you look at it, rates are staying very low, for a very long time.
In the last week:
3 Month Sterling Libor = down by 0.034% to 0.197%
2 Year SWAP = down by 0.013% to 0.261%
5 Year SWAP = up by 0.030% to 0.307%
2 Year Variable from 1.05%
2 Year Fixed Rates from 1.14%
5 Year Fixed Rates from 1.36%
BTL Rates from 1.19%
The actual rate you will be offered will be dependent on your personal circumstance and deposit level. Please speak to one of our advisers so that they can guide you through this process.
Source: Twenty7Tec June 2020
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